postgameheroes.com Monitoring sports and entertainment with a Pittsburgh and Washington D.C. focus.

Steelers Madden 12 player ratings released

Camp Battles: Defense

On to part two of our look at the Steelers camp battles.  As usual the same old questions remain....is the secondary going to be good enough and is the team injecting enough youth to continue their dominating play?

Linebackers:

Your starting LBs are Woodley, Timmons, Farrior, Harrison....the best group of LBs in the league and it's not even close.  The Steelers always replenish this position with young studs and this camp is no different.  Stevenson Sylvester was very impressive last year and looks like he can contribute on ST while being groomed for an ILB job.  Farrior is getting up there in age so we need to keep an eye out for the next great Steelers ILB. 

Worilds is a guy we will all focus on during the exhibition games.  For every Home Run (Timmons/Woodley) we get from the draft we also get our share of bums (Bruce Davis, Rian Wallace, Alonzo Jackson, etc...)  let's hope Worilds can step up and provide some solid ST play, situational pass rush, and show flashes of developing into a starter one day.  If he fails, what a waste of a 2nd round pick, eh?  Take a look at the 2nd round picks the Steelers have whiffed on:  Worilds?, Urbik, Sweed, Colclough, Alonzo Jackson, Scott Shields, Will Blackwell, Steve Conley.  Just awful. 

Baraka Atkins is a DL but is listed as a LB on the Steelers roster for some reason, not sure why.  Chris Carter and Mario Harvey come with a lot of college hype so I will focus on these guys during the preseason.  Both are "Steeler LB" in terms of their ferociousness and physical style but that doesn't guarantee a roster spot.  If one of these guys steps up Larry Foote is a goner. 

Secondary:

Ah yes, the most concerning position on the roster.  The position that cost us a Super Bowl and is seemingly the only reason we don't go undefeated each year.  Why do we lost to the Saints, Patriots, Packers?  Because they spread the ball and throw it on us.  This secondary will determine our season, as it does most years.  I hate having to "avoid" the Patriots in order to get to the Super Bowl each year but it's a must when you field a secondary like ours.  Last year I sat and watched the NFC Championship gaming knowing the winner of that game would determine the Super Bowl winner.  If Chicago wins that game, the Steelers have another ring right now.  If the Packers win, they throw the ball all over us and our chances to win are slim.  That's just the way it is when you have a secondary built to tackle and play physical rather than a secondary designed to cover speedy/quick WRs and defend passes.

Polamalu is a beast, no question about that.  When he's injured though, he's a shell of his former self and can be picked on.

Camp Battles: Offense

A few days of camp are under our belts and the Steelers first preseason game is quickly approaching.  Sounds like a good time to hash out some of the key training camp roster battles.  We'll hit up the offense today and go defense tomorrow.

Wide Receivers:

I know next to nothing of the new rookie WRs so we will have to see how they look in preseason game 1.  One of them may surprise and stick with the team and kick Grisham/Sweed/Battle off the roster.

Steelers need to restructure contracts ASAP

I was shocked to see the Steelers entered the "lockout week" about $10 million over the salary cap.  We never sign big name free agents, we're not flashy, we don't "buy" championships, I doesn't seem right.

Re-signing our own homegrown and drafted talent is seemingly just as expensive as shopping for UFAs.  We develop our own players and when their rookie contracts are up, we re-sign them.  It's as simple as that.  Sure re-signing Ike Taylor isn't as sexy or flashy as going out and grabbing a high-ticket Free Agent but it's the Steeler Way and 9 times out of 10 it's the right way.

Other teams make big splashes and are talked about on ESPN and NFL Network all off-season while we put our noses to the grindstone and handle our business in a workmanlike/boring manner.  It works.  It's not exciting in July/August but it's pretty exciting come playoff time when we're consistently winning games.

With that said, there are some guys on the current roster that could lend a helping hand by restructuring their contracts to give the Steelers some room under the cap.  We have a few areas that need upgrading and getting more cap space is going to be much needed.

Aaron Smith (no chance he gets cut) --- 4.5 million in salary and 6.1 against the salary cap.  Love the guy like everyone else but he's always injured, he's old, and he is a team-first player.  I see no reason why he wouldn't restructure his deal to reduce his cap hit.

LaMarr Woodley (franchise) --- OK he doesn't really belong on the list but we need to mention him.  As a Franchise-Tagged guy he is slated to rake in $10 million this year.  If the team can get him signed to a long-term deal his cap hit will be cut in half.  That alone will save the team 3, 4, 5 million dollars on the cap.  Signing him to an extension is a no-brainer.  Keep in mind that a deal likely won't be struck until August 3rd.  Anybody signing a contract now has to sit until August 4th, so by delaying his extension until August 3rd, it allows Woodley to practice with the team between now and then.  A little loophole.

Larry Foote (might get cut) ---2.4 million salary and 3.0 million cap hit.  Stevenson Sylvester makes 400k and seems like he's ready to take your job.  A few other young guys also seem capable of taking your spot on the roster.  Restructure or hit the road.

Chris Kemoeatu (might get cut) ---salary sits at 2.9 million and his cap hit is $4.0 million.  Could he really get released?  I don't think it's all that likely but what if Legursky and Foster (or some other combo) win the starting jobs?  Can't pay a backup OL 4.0 million dollars.  Again, it's not likely he gets let go but you kind of get the feeling that the coaching staff is a bit annoyed with his mental errors and dumb penalties.

Arnaz Battle (might get cut) --- around 1.0 million in salary with a 1.4 million cap hit.  Probably not a guy that would agree to a restructure.  Being a special teams "ace" he would prefer to get released and then sign somewhere else.  With Ward, Wallace, Sanders, Brown, and maybe Burress on the roster....there is no room for him.

A quick study should be done before Ike Taylor is resigned

I was doing my show last night and sort of made an opinion about the status of Ike Taylor.

It’s at this time of the year when Tom Shaw begins to get touted by those who follow the NFL. NFL players such as Jim Farrior, Ray Lewis and Ike Taylor routinely head south for his Shaw’s camp.

Well, the discussion on my show was about Taylor and if the Steelers should pay the man despite his age. I made the opinion that the Steelers should base much of their decision on a study that should be done on players that have been trained by Shaw and have it compared to players that haven't taken the time to visit his camp or a camp of this kind on a yearly basis.

Have their careers been extended because they had such high level fitness due to training with the Guru over a period of years? Did they maintain their efficiency longer than other players?

In other words, Does Ike Taylor have 3 more years left in him at playing at a high level because he trained with that fitness guru?

Well, Lewis and Farrior certainly are two well known clients of his and their level of play at their age speaks for itself.

Their should be research done to see if NFL players have lasted longer and maintained their level of efficiency longer than those that didn't train with Shaw.  Just look at Polamalu breaking down. Maybe this wouldn't happen had he been spending summers down in Florida?

The answer to signing Ike Taylor is in the result of that quick study that should be done.

That is, if a study hasn't already been done by someone.

Dutch Wydo

Dutch Wydo is a sportstalk host on Triblive.com 5-6 Est Thursday evenings.

Super Bowl preview

Steelers vs Packers Super Bowl Prediction

By Dutch

 I’ve picked winning sides based on stats and trends. I’ve picked winning sides based on my personal feel about a game that had little or nothing to do with statistics. But in the past several years I’ve spent a considerable amount of time gauging how the sports media and fans feel about upcoming NFL matchups and have often found myself going against public sentiment.  And Yes I’ve picked winning sides based on that too. 

But I’ve had most success during the times where I’ve been able combine hard core statistics to build a case against that strong one sided public position. Which brings us to this year’s Super Bowl between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers.

One of the big stories right now is how large of a backing the Green Bay Packers are getting for this matchup. It doesn’t seem to matter if we’re looking in the USA Today newspaper, ESPN, Or the NFL channel, we continually see about 80% picking the Packers.

 It’s simply astonishing to me that Pittsburgh doesn’t have more backers. The Steelers are going for a third Super Bowl win in 6 years. The Packers haven’t been to a Super bowl since 1997 season. Pittsburgh also played in the superior conference that averaged 0.2 yards per play higher in each AFC/NFC matchup this season.

The one thing I’ve noticed about the public is that they have a short term memory. In this case, they can’t get Roethlisberger’s sloppy game against the Jets out of their head. Meanwhile, Aaron Rogers tearing up a fraud of an Atlanta team is still very much etched in their minds. The Falcons had a -0.7 Yards per play differential on the season. Had Atlanta made the Super bowl, they would have been the worst Super bowl participant of all time according to that key stat.

The Steelers meanwhile faced a Jets defense that was playing their best ball of the season. They weren’t allowing anyone to throw the football on them.  Would Aaron Rogers have played any better against the Jets than Roethlisberger? The answer is no and the evidence is quite convincing. The Packers played the Jets around mid season.

Rodgers vs the Jets (week 8)

Completion pct = 44.1% (15 for 34)
Yards per att     = 5.0
Points scored    = 9 Points
 
Roethlisberger vs Jets (championship game)

Completion pct = 52.5%
Yards per att     = 7.0
Points scored    = 17 offensive points
 
There are quite a few myths heading into this game. Let’s take a look at some of them.
 
Myth #1 = The Steelers pass defense is the weak link  
 
It’s possible that the Packers have better cover corners. But the goal of any secondary is to play good pass defense.  With that being said, it is the Steelers defense that leads the league in the fewest yards per pass allowed. The Steelers also allowed the fewest pass plays over 20 yards.  
 
Myth #2 = The Packers have a dominant defensive line.
 
The Packers allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Only a small handful of teams allowed more yards per carry than the Green Bay defense. Even worse, the Packers would allow 4.5 yards per rush against a schedule of offenses that would gain 4.2 on average this season.  A dominant defensive line doesn’t allow such a high yards per carry.  Furthermore, the Packers defensive linemen are big and powerful. The Steelers offensive line struggle against the quicker, more athletic linemen.  
 
Myth #3 The Packers passing offense is much more explosive than Pittsburgh’s.
 
The Steelers ranked 2nd  in the amount of throws over 20 yards this season (62). The Packers had 57 throws go for more than 20 yards. The Steelers have a deep set of receivers just as the Packers do. Roethlisberger can throw the football. Many in the media still haven’t figured that out.  
 
Myth #4 The Packers don’t need a running game to beat the Steelers
 
The Packers were 1-4 in games where they rushed for less than 80 yards. Green Bay averaged just 13.4 points per game in those contests.  The Steelers meanwhile were 3-1 in games where their offense rushed for less than 80 yards.  They were 3-0 in those games when Roethlisberger was the quarterback. It appears that the Steelers don’t need a running game to win.
 
After taking a look at the above myths, one can now understand why there are so many Packers backers for this game. Hey, if I thought the Packers had the far superior pass defense, a truly dominant defensive line, a more explosive passing offense, and didn’t need a running game to win, I might pick the Packers as well. But I know better after checking a few facts that are noted above.
 
Two Keys to the Game
 
Key#1 =  Rogers Patience.
 
Rogers wants to go downfield, but the Steelers don’t’ allow that. Only tom Brady has shown the type of patience that it takes over 4 quarters to effectively move the football against Pittsburgh. Without a running attack, Rogers will be faced several 3rd down and long situations and that is when his patience will be tested.  
 
Key #2 The Packers offensive line
 
 We have heard a lot of about the Steelers offensive lines and their short comings this week. But 34 years old Packers LT Chad Clifton allowed 8 sacks this year and is playing hurt. He will have to deal with James Harrison who just might be playing his best football. There won’t be much help for Clifton because Lamar Woodley will be licking his chops while getting to face a rookie Right tackle. Woodley will be especially motivated due to his contract status. A big game on the biggest stage would be like hitting the lottery.  Furthermore, if the Packers are going to spread the field with 4 wide receivers, than there won’t be a lot extra help in protection for Rogers.
 
Conclusion
 
The Packers can certainly win this game. No one will be surprised if they do. But the Steelers have a two dimensional offense with Rashard Mendenhall  playing his best football of his career. The Steelers defense led the league in the fewest yards per pass and fewest yards per rush allowed.  The Packers offense is one dimensional and all the pressure is on their young quarterback who hasn’t won anything. Common sense and a little bit of fact checking tells me that the Steelers should win. Maybe all of these Packer backers know something about this matchup that I don’t.
 
But I doubt it….
 
 Look for the Packers to turn the football over.
 
Pittsburgh 24 Packers 20
 

Roethlisberger – Montana Comparison – first 7 years as a Starter!

All Stats shown are compiled from both Quarterbacks  first 7 years as a starter. Montana 1980-86 seasons. Roethlisberger 2004-2010 Seasons.

Montana   21.402 passing yards

Roeth         22,502  passing yards

Montana  2855 passing attempts

Roeth        2800 passing attempts

Montana   7.5 yards per attempt

Roeth         8.0 yards per attempt

Montana   140 TD passes

Roeth         141 TD passes

Montana   5.0 TD Percentage (percentage of passes that go for Touchdowns)

Roeth        5.1%

Montana  1805 Completions

Roeth        1766 Completions

Montana  63% Completion percentage

Roeth        63% Completion percentage

Montana  66% win percentage

Roeth        68% win percentage

Montana  2.7 Interception percentage

Roeth        3.1 Interception percentage

Montana  11.8 Yards per Completion

Roeth        12.7 Yards per Completion

Montana ‘s  team averaged 4.1 Yards per rush

Roeth’s        team  averaged 4.1 yards per rush

Montana’s  team averaged 31 rushing attempts per game

Roeth’s        team averaged 31 rushing attempts per game

Montana’s  team defense allowed 477 points in the two SB seasons in his first 6 years

Roeth’s        team defense allowed 481 points in the two SB seasons in his first 6 years

Montana      13 4th Quarter comebacks in first 7 years as a starter

Roeth           19 4th quarter comebacks in first 7 years as starter

Montana    12 game winning drives in first 7 years as starter

Roeth          25 game winning drives in first 7 years as starter

Postseason Play through first 7 seasons

Montana   10 post season games

Roeth        12 post season games

Montana  7-3 Record in Post season

Roeth        10-2 Record in Post season

Montana  0-3 record on the road in Post season

Roeth        3-0 record on the road in Post season

Montana   2562 Passing yards in Post season

Roeth         2598 Passing yards in Post season

Montana   59.9% completion percentage in post season

Roeth         61.9% completion percentage in post season

Montana   7.6 Yards per attempt in Post season

Roeth         7.9 Yards per attempt in Post season

Montana  202 Completions in post season

Roeth        201 completions in post season

Montana   17-14 TD to INT ratio in Post season

Roeth         17-14 TD to INT ratio in Post season

Montan’s defense allowed 21.1 points per game

Roeth’s defense allowed 21.5 points per game

Montana’s team averaged 22.5 points per game in the post season

Roeth’s team averaged 27 points per game in the post season

NFL Needs to Eliminate “Passer Rating” Statistic

Most people who have read my articles or heard me on radio know that I’m a stats guy, but there is one statistic I can do without.

The Passer rating stat.

In Sunday's AFC Championship Game, the Steelers were able to hold on and eliminate the New York Jets 24-19 and advance to Super Bowl XLV.  One of the stories to come out of that game was that Ben Roethlisberger supposedly had one of his worst postseason performances, with a 35.5 passer rating.

Ben’s numbers weren’t that bad. He averaged 7.0 yards per attempt. Anything above 7 is considered very good. But those who cover the game often struggle with the use of statistics. This is mainly due to the NFL shoving their passer rating down our collective throat. It really is a horrible statistic to rely on in a one game set, though it holds a little more water if used over the course of a QB's career.

First of all, sometimes stats just don’t tell the whole story. Consider that in the 2001 championship game, Kordell Stewart had a passer rating of 45.2.  Stewart backers might point to the fact that against the Patriots, Kordell didn’t get the support from the running game that Roethlisberger got from Mendenhall yesterday.

But what the stats don’t tell you is that defenses like the 2001 Patriots were determined to stack the line of scrimmage and force Stewart to beat them. Sunday, the Jets focused on taking wide receivers Hines Ward and Mike Wallace out of the game, forcing the Steelers to beat them by running the ball.

That’s the influence of Roethlisberger that doesn’t show up in the box score. The Jets wanted to take away the pass. The 2001 Patriots wanted to take away Bettis.

New York did the same thing to the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots, but neither team could run effectively enough to gut out a win.  Furthermore, neither team could convert critical third down plays like Roethlisberger did with both his arm and legs. Those runs by Roethlisberger where he picked up first downs and a touchdown, won’t count for much on the NFL’s major quarterback stat.

But even from a pure statistical standpoint, the passer rating can be a very misleading stat.

For example, in the second quarter, Big Ben passed to running back Rashard Mendenhall in the left flat.  Mendenhall caught the pass and ran down the left side and was tackled near the two yard line setting up a first and goal.  Roethlisberger ran it in for the score on the next play. But had Mendenhall been able to reach the end zone on the pass play, Ben’s passer rating for that game would have gone up about 40 to 50 points.  His TD rush gave him no points.  In fact, he gets practically nothing in the way of passer rating points, all because his receiver came up just short of the end zone.

And that is the problem with that rating. Their passer rating formula overvalues touchdown passes and interceptions.

In fact, there are some quarterbacks through the years that did not like  to throw the “Hail Mary” pass at the end of a half because they know that there is a significant chance the ball will be picked off and their passer rating will take a huge hit.

Think about that for a second. An interception thrown at the end of a half on a Hail Mary play counts the same in the passer rating formula as does a Brett Favre interception that cost his team a chance to move onto the Super Bowl one year ago.

Doesn’t make much sense, does it?

That’s why that formula is so flawed, but the writers and reporters are pretty much stuck with it because it's what the league uses as its standard.

Ultimately, the best stat to use when grading a quarterback's performance is yards per pass attempt (YPA). It takes into account the actual efficiency of a QB. .

Furthermore, no yardage stat in pro football has a higher correlation to winning than yards per pass attempt. Kordell Stewart only averaged 5.2 YPA in his postseason career. Anything under 6 YPA is considered abysmal.  Roethlisberger entered this post season sporting an average over 8 YPA in the post season. Any average near 8 is considered elite.

Taking it a step further, the Steelers average 27 points per game in the postseason when Ben is the starting quarterback, and that is near the top of the list for any QB in the history of the game that played in a fair share of post season games.

It's like the Seattle Seahawks' Matt Hasselbeck in Super Bowl 40. He only averaged 5.8 YPA for that game. While he completed a lot of passes, none of them meant a damn thing. That YPA stat has the ability to show how meaningful (or not) the passes were.

Finally, consider this statement by former Baltimore Ravens head coach Brian Billick earlier this year regarding Big Ben: “I've never seen a guy make more big plays in fewer pass attempts than Roethlisberger."   You can look directly at his ranking of 4^th highest all time YPA average to validate Billicks comment. And unlike Tony Romo, Roethlisberger has maintained his YPA average in the post season.

It’s very disappointing to hear experts say that Roethlisberger doesn’t put up great stats, despite being one of the all-time best in the most important QB stat of them all.

Yards per pass attempt.

Pittsburgh vs Jets

Championship Game, Baby! This is what it’s all about. Gotta love it!

I’ve spent quite a few years touting Ben Roethlisberger.  It started with his 2nd preseason game in August of 2004. I can remember it like it was yesterday. I had just recently begun doing a sports talk show on Saturday nights. A thought occurred to me as I watched him play.

The thought was that this quarterback had more poise than any Steelers quarterback that I had ever seen since Bradshaw.

Even in those very early days, Roethlisberger never seemed out of place. I came on theshow that Saturday night and said that Ben should start game 1 because he was already better than any Steelers quarterback since Bradshaw.

My first caller that evening said, “You are an idiot!” Ha!

So it goes…..

Rex Ryan is the best coach in pro football. His team is outplaying their stats and it’s because of Ryan’s defensive schemes and his brilliant work as a psychologist. But unfortunately for dear Rex, his message is going to be a tough sell this week.

All of the situations play to Pittsburgh. The Jets just beat the Colts and Patriots in successive weeks. The Colts had knocked the Jets out of the playoffs last year.  The Patriots just beat the Jets 45-3 a few weeks ago.

Do you think the message was hard to get across? Absolutely not.

But all of this plays against the Jets this game. Road playoff teams off 2 straight up underdog wins are just 3-11 lifetime.

What will the Jets energy and emotional level be this game? The above stat gives you quite a clue.

There is more bad news for Rex Ryan. He can’t even say to his players that we got our asses handed to us in Pittsburgh last time! But you better believe Tomlin will be taking advantage of that 5 point loss to New York this season.

The Steelers are 10-1 when revenging a game against an opponent last three years.

The Jets have the superior advantage in special teams.  But the fact that they got a big return TD against Pittsburgh in the previous game makes you think that the Steelers will be extra focused to not allow that to occur in this game.

Finally, Pittsburgh is 17-2 off a home win the last 3 years.

The Steelers are not only in a better spot.  Pittsburgh is the much better team. The public thinks the Jets have a great shot to win. But they are wrong.

Yards per play differential

Steelers +1.0, Patriots +0.4, Colts +0.1, Jets +0.1

Yards per pass differential

Steelers +1.8, Patriots +0.9, Colts +0.4, Jets +0.1

How can the Jets even compete here?

This game should be very simply to handicap. The Steelers will stuff the Jets running attack behind a great run defense and a frenzied crowd, and force Mark Sanchez to beat them with his piss poor 6.2 Net yards per pass average.

Rex Ryan has major problems with his game plan here. Does he stick to his run first mentality and lose? Or does he come out throwing in an attempt to win the game? If Ryan chooses plan B, it will be his only chance to pull off a win. But this would be a tough call for him to make.

Cowher had issues with this for years.  He would never want to get away from what he does best. Because if it backfired, he would most likely regret it for 6 months. This is all brought on by having a less than championship quality quarterback.

Run first teams don’t win championships. If they did, Earl Campbell, Barry Sanders, OJ Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Tomlinson,  would all have at least 1 Superbowl between them.

The Steelers defense will shut down the run and force Sanchez to beat them.  His lack of efficiency will become amazingly apparent in this game.

The Jets will walk away wondering if he can ever get them to where they want to go.

Rex Ryan will become known as a coach who can’t win the big one. That would be very unfair to him of course.  But that label has been tossed around to a lot of great coaches that willed their team as a far as they could possibly go with mediocre talent at the Quarterback position.

Meanwhile Pittsburgh enters the game with a defense that seems to better each game. Pittsburgh allows just 4.5 Yards per play against a schedule of offenses that gain 5.4 yards per play on average. The Jets offense meanwhile gains just 5.2 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.3 yards per play defensively on average. In other words the Jets may not be able to move the football much at all in this game.

The Jets are in a lot of trouble.

Roethlisberger is in a great spot. The Jets defense dominated the Colts and Patriots offenses. Roethlisberger said that he doesn’t know what he can do against them. Oh yes he does. You have to love this situational spot for big Ben.  You just get the feeling that he is in a great frame of mind.

If we take the Steelers +0.7 net yards per play differential and divide by 0.15, you would get about 4.6 points. Now add 3 points to the home team and all of the situational angles that play into Pittsburgh’s favor, and we should see a Steelers victory reach double digits.

This really isn’t that hard folks.

Pittsburgh 27 Jets 13