The Fleury Factor
Going into Tuesday night’s game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Washington Capitals, the Atlantic Division looked like this:
| GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | GF | GA | Home | Road | L10 | |
| x-New Jersey | 78 | 45 | 26 | 7 | 99 | 211 | 186 | 25-10-4 | 20-16-3 | 4-2-4 |
| x-Pittsburgh | 78 | 45 | 26 | 7 | 97 | 241 | 222 | 24-11-4 | 21-15-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Philadelphia | 79 | 39 | 34 | 6 | 86 | 229 | 220 | 23-14-3 | 17-20-3 | 3-6-1 |
| NY Rangers | 79 | 36 | 33 | 10 | 82 | 212 | 212 | 16-17-6 | 20-16-4 | 5-4-1 |
| NY Islanders | 78 | 33 | 35 | 10 | 78 | 209 | 241 | 23-14-3 | 11-21-7 | 6-3-1 |
What did we know?
We knew the Pens were tied for first place in the division. We also knew that despite having a share of first place in the Division, the Pens were fourth-worst in division in Goals Against (GA), as well as ranked 18th in the entire NHL in that category.
A quick look at Goals For (GF) tells us that the Penguins must be winning because of their offense. The Pens are tops in the division in goals scored and fifth-best overall in the league.
Of course, these facts alone do not tell us everything. Let’s take it another step.
Shots Against (average per game)
New Jersey (27.4)
Penguins (28.6)
Flyers (28.8)
Rangers (29.7)
Isles (31.8)
Based on the numbers above, you can clearly see the Penguins are second best in the Atlantic division in shots allowed per game…
In fact, the Penguins have a top 5 defense in the NHL for fewest shots allowed.
Shots against rankings league wide:
#1 Chicago Blackhawks (24.9)
#2 Devils (27.4)
#3 Los Angeles Kings (27.7)
#4 Ottawa Senators (28.5)
#5 Penguins (28.6)
In review, the Pens are fifth-best in goals scored and fifth-best in shots allowed in the league. This tells us that they have a top tier offense and defense. But why are they a poor fourth-worst in the division and 18th in the league in goals against?
The answer is save percentage. Entering Tuesday evening, here were the percentages of the Atlantic Division goalies.
Henrik Lundqvist – Rangers – .920
Martin Broudeur – Devils – .915
Dwayne Roloson – Islanders – .909
Michael Leighton / Ray Emery – Flyers – .906
Marc-Andre Fleury – Penguins – .905
In a radio interview on Tuesday, one beat writer for the team blasted the Penguins defense and stated that Fleury has had a great season, saving the Penguins this year. This could not be further from the truth.
The only argument that could even be tried is that despite being fifth best in the NHL in Shots Against, the Penguin defense gives up more quality chances per Shots Against. This, of course, would be an absurd statement, bordering on ignorance.
Most starting goalies face more than 1,000 shots of shots per year. Each of them faces shots of varying difficulty. All of these goalies get left out to dry at times .Thomas Vokoun of the Florida Panthers sees 35 shots per night. You think Fleury wants to have Vokoun’s job? Take away the Pens fifth-ranked scoring offense and their fifth-ranked defense in Shots Against, and give Fleury the Panthers’ offense and defense.
Let me know how many championships he wins.
Last year, the Pens held the Washington Capitals and Detroit Red Wings to a ridiculously low average of 23 and 26 shots, respectively, for five of the seven games in each series. These were offenses that were regularly pumping 36-40 shots per night before they faced Pittsburgh.
My guess is that this beat writer and others who are like-minded are basing their opinion (that the Pens’ defense is not playing well) on what they saw last postseason. It would be unrealistic to expect that kind of defensive performance again. But the defense is still 5th best in shots as they average 28 shots against per game. Tuesday night they held the Caps to only 27 shots. They average 33 a game on the season. This defense is pretty good. Playing Goalie in Pittsburgh didn’t all of a sudden become an impossible job. Fleury just needs to bring his save percentage up a bit. He needs to start living up to expectations that his fans have placed on him. He needs to live up to that new contract that was given to him.
To take a cue from former NFL head coach Dick Vermeil:
It’s time to take the Diapers off young man.
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MAF did have a very nice trio of saves tonight in one instance. I was pounding Yeungling at the bar and can't remember which period……but it was awesome.
Dude, we get it already. Haven't you ever heard of the proverbial dead horse? Don't you have anything else to write about?
There isn't much else going on in Pittsburgh sports right now that this site has ever traditionally covered. If you're going to try and figure out what the Pens are doing wrong, then you're going to talk about struggling players, etc. This one just happens to be a really big piece of the puzzle, but this article still takes a different slant :p
Time for the bi-monthly anti-Fleury post by Dutch. Have to say that just dismissing quality of shots by saying they are "This, of course, would be an absurd statement, bordering on ignorance." is in and of itself an absurd statement that is bordering on ignorance. Do some research and write some facts that support it.
The Penguins style should lead to more odd-man breaks and breakaways than, for example, the Devils. Have you watched the Devils play? How many hard shots does Brodeur see? Shots against is a hard stat to use because a wrist shot counts the same as a breakaway. The Penguins defense are slick, puckhandling types for the most part, not punishing checkers. That means players aren't worried about getting ridden hard into the boards, etc. What happens then is players can skate behind the net (ever noticed how often players can swoop behind our net yet it's much rarer for us to do so to the opposing team?) which allows for shifting, open shooting lanes and much better scoring chances. That is still only one shot, yet anyone who has ever watched the game will tell you which they prefer. Also, a team that doesn't get hit and knocked off of the puck knows that by holding on to the puck that defensive assignments will eventually get blown are more prone to waiting for the perfect play rather than merely taking a shot.
All that said, I am an unabashed supporter of Fleury, regardless of the statistics in the finals last year, he was great. I don't care what the average shots were of the Red Wings in the finals, in the final two games Fleury gave up a total of 2 goals on 50 shots. A .960 SV% in the final two games? That's clutch, he was a star of those games along with his defense. I definitely think he needs to step it up, as he did last night against the Islanders. But do you always have to paint him as someone who should be playing in WBS?
Chris, you are missing a greater point. Just because you and I disagree over the quality of shots Fleury has faced over the season, compared to that of his peers doesn't really matter. Because the severe problem is that Fleury allows to many weak goals compard to his peers.
Ranked 17th in SV pct against Hard Shots
Ranked 26th in SV pct against Average quality shots
Ranked 37th in SV pct against Low Quality shots <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Where are those numbers from?
I think you're missing the point. He is a winner.
* – meant "the greatest point."
Mitch Berger won a SB
Chris, if you adjust his percentage to account for shot quality, which is a huge part of what you're getting at, Fleury is still just an average goalie. Check out the discussion posts on the last Fleury post. That said, an average goalie can steal some games, get on a hot streak, and it might be true that he has the nerves for the big games. I wouldn't trade him for very many goalies because of that. But to be realistic about my team, he's average with a few intangibles and a huge upside that we're all hoping he taps into.
That is the best counter-point you have? Seriously? I would have at least thought a Dilfer reference was good. But a punter? Come on.
What I am meaning more is that I don't know for sure, but I would guess that's the case (shot difficulty being part of it). The big games are where it's at. Anyone who would trade Fleury for anyone not named Bordeur, Miller or Luongo right now doesn't make much sense. Ask Sharks fans how great it is to have Nabokov put up the numbers in the regular season only. That's why I consider him to be better than average.
He's not the greatest goalie ever, never said he was. But he's not, as Dutch said in a previous post, a goalie who is only a starter in this league because of his pedigree. "Final Analysis = If Fleury was a 9th round pick and his name was John Johnson. He would have been benched by now (Decade in Pittsburgh Sports post comments)." That's just ignorant.
Once again, I also said I think Fleury needs to step it up (above), but if he is our weakest link right now, that would be a marked improvement. Our defense has been atrocious.
By the way, I wasn't asking where those numbers were coming from to be a jerk, I am honestly interested.