i; font-size: small;”>My thoughts on the 2010 NFL Playoffs right now :
- Rex Ryan is the best coach in pro football.
I've been touting Ryan – the head coach of the New York Jets – all year. He's a defensive genius and master psychologist. His defense just eliminated Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, holding each to less than 20 points (this does not include the final Patriots drive as the Jets played prevent). Ryan’s the reason the Jets have a chance on Sunday.
I could pound my head against the wall… I could pound their heads against the wall… and some people will still choose to ignore a critical piece of information that I have stated over and over again. If you want to analyze a pro football matchup, don’t spend too much time looking at records and scoring differential.
The New England Patriots were supposedly unbeatable, but few people actually took the time to find out why they were winning in the first place. The following should be forever etched into memory for handy future recall.
The only way a team can serve up as many blowout wins as the Patriots did while only outgaining their opponents +0.4 yards per play on the season is to have a 24-1 turnover margin in the final eight games.
As soon as New England played a team that would force them to turn it over, they were going to have a good shot to lose. Teams that get tons of turnovers score tons of points. See Exhibit A: the 2009 World Champion New Orleans Saints. That said, turnovers are partially luck. If a team is winning on turnovers and not yards per play differential, that good fortune will undoubtedly catch up with it at a later date.
The only real difference between the last year's Pittsburgh Steelers and this year's is turnover margin. That’s about it.
- I am terrified of the New York Jets.
I will not be able to sleep well until this game is over and the Steelers get a win.
The Las Vegas oddsmakers only opened this game at Steeler -3. That bothers me a great deal because, unlike the Ravens games, I am expecting a lot of money to come on the Steelers side. That Pittsburgh is only getting the home field advantage three points makes me feel like the oddsmakers are leaning to the Jets.
The Jets can win the AFC�
39;s Super Bowl berth, despite the statistics telling me it’s all Steelers.
We have seen in the recent past where teams with a strong four-man pass rush advance to the Super Bowl despite being underdogs. The 2007 version of the other New York team comes to mind.
The Jets' pass rush has not been consistent this year, but the four-man rush they put on Brady last Sunday was the reason they won.
There are only two reliable ways to beat a such a strong pass rush.
1) Block them and give your QB a lot of extra time to find a receiver.
2) Run the ball and force them to bring a safety down inside the box, which could open up things downfield.
With the Steelers running attack getting worse and worse by the week, Roethlisberger is going to have to be ultra patient in this game. He cannot force the ball downfield early on, because that will fall right into the trap being set by Rex Ryan’s defense. Unfortunately, it appears that the Steelers will need to play a bit more conservatively on offense and allow their defense to win this game.
I’m not sure if Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez is good enough to win another game. I feel as though he will be the reason the Steelers will win. True, he had an above 100 passer rating, but that only shows you how flawed that stat is.
This week he will face a legitimate championship defense with strong safety Troy Polamalu in the game. If the Steelers make this game about Sanchez, they should win. Don’t give him anything easy. His lack of efficiency should do him in.
I sure hope that the Vegas line goes to Steelers -3.5 or or more higher. Steelers are just 2-13 against the spread in their last 15 games as a home favorite of three points or less. But they are 22-9 against the spread as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10.
The biggest question mark for the Jets: how much do they have left in the tank for this game.
Road teams that own a winning record during the second half of the season and are coming off two consecutive underdog wins are just 11-36 straight up since 1983.
And assuming the Steelers prevail over the Jets, the Green Bay Packers scare me, too.
====================================================================
Click on link below to view my writeup for Ravens vs Pittsburgh
http://www.heraldstandard.com/news_detail/article/1636/2011/january/14/pittsburgh-vs-baltimore.html
Rex Ryan is the kind of coach you love to play for as a player.
The Jets are not going to be able to run 30 times for four and a half yards per carry like they do against the Patriots.
This game will be decided by the passing game. The five eligables who manage to make plays against the other team's defensive coverage will advance.
A lot rides on how Rex Ryan chooses to match his corners to Pittsburgh's receivers. Mike Wallace can outrun Revis downfield, and Cromartie is not smart enough to deal with a receiver like Ward, who can give you multiple looks on the same simple pass route. Revis can cover Ward. Cromartie is fast enough to deal with Wallace, but Wallace is getting better at fooling defenders. Cromartie is easily fooled.
On the Pittsburgh side, how will Lebeau deal with Edwards and Holmes? Ike Taylor can hold his own against one (he matches up very well against Edwards in particular). William Gay cannot hold his own against either of the others. Lebeau is no dummy. He knows that. How he accounts for it is the question.