Steelers vs Packers Super Bowl Prediction
By Dutch
I’ve picked winning sides based on stats and trends. I’ve picked winning sides based on my personal feel about a game that had little or nothing to do with statistics. But in the past several
years I’ve spent a considerable amount of time gauging how the sports media and fans feel about upcoming NFL matchups and have often found myself going against public sentiment. And Yes I’ve picked winning sides based on that too.
But I’ve had most success during the times where I’ve been able combine hard core statistics to build a case against that strong one sided public position. Which brings us to this year’s Super Bowl between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers.
One of the big stories right now is how large of a backing the Green Bay Packers are getting for this matchup. It doesn’t seem to matter if we’re looking in the USA Today newspaper, ESPN, Or the NFL channel, we continually see about 80% picking the Packers.
It’s simply astonishing to me that Pittsburgh doesn’t have more backers. The Steelers are going for a third Super Bowl win in 6 years. The Packers haven’t been to a Super bowl since 1997 season. Pittsburgh also played in the superior conference that averaged 0.2 yards per play higher in each AFC/NFC matchup this season.
The one thing I’ve noticed about the public is that they have a short term memory. In this case, they can’t get Roethlisberger’s sloppy game against the Jets out of their head. Meanwhile, Aaron Rogers tearing up a fraud of an Atlanta team is still very much etched in their minds. The Falcons had a -0.7 Yards per play differential on the season. Had Atlanta made the Super bowl, they would have been the worst Super bowl participant of all time according to that key stat.
The Steelers meanwhile faced a Jets defense that was playing their best ball of the season. They weren’t allowing anyone to throw the football on them. Would Aaron Rogers have played any better against the Jets than Roethlisberger? The answer is no and the evidence is quite convincing. The Packers played the Jets around mid season.
Rodgers vs the Jets (week 8)
Completion pct = 44.1% (15 for 34)
Yards per att = 5.0
Points scored = 9 Points
Roethlisberger vs Jets (championship game)
Completion pct = 52.5%
Yards per att = 7.0
Points scored = 17 offensive points
There are quite a few myths heading into this game. Let’s take a look at some of them.
Myth #1 = The Steelers pass defense is the weak link
It’s possible that the Packers have better cover corners. But the goal of any secondary is to play good pass defense. With that being said, it is the Steelers defense that leads the league in the fewest yards per pass allowed. The Steelers also allowed the fewest pass plays over 20 yards.
Myth #2 = The Packers have a dominant defensive line.
The Packers allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Only a small handful of teams allowed more yards per carry than the Green Bay defense. Even worse, the Packers would allow 4.5 yards per rush against a schedule o
f offenses that would gain 4.2 on average this season. A dominant defensive line doesn’t allow such a high yards per carry. Furthermore, the Packers defensive linemen are big and powerful. The Steelers offensive line struggle against the quicker, more athletic linemen.
Myth #3 The Packers passing offense is much more explosive than Pittsburgh’s.
The Steelers ranked 2nd in the amount of throws over 20 yards this season (62). The Packers had 57 throws go for more than 20 yards. The Steelers have a deep set of receivers just as the Packers do. Roethlisberger can throw the football. Many in the media still haven’t figured that out.
Myth #4 The Packers don’t need a running game to beat the Steelers
The Packers were 1-4 in games where they rushed for less than 80 yards. Green Bay averaged just 13.4 points per game in those contests. The Steelers meanwhile were 3-1 in games where their offense rushed for less than 80 yards. They were 3-0 in those games when Roethlisberger was the quarterback. It appears that the Steelers don’t need a running game to win.
After taking a look at the above myths, one can now understand why there are so many Packers backers for this game. Hey, if I thought the Packers had the far superior pass defense, a truly dominant defensive line, a more explosive passing offense, and didn’t need a running game to win, I might pick the Packers as well. But I know better after checking a few facts that are noted above.
Two Keys to the Game
Key#1 = Rogers Patience.
Rogers wants to go downfield, but the Steelers don’t’ allow that. Only tom Brady has shown the type of patience that it takes over 4 quarters to effectively move the football against Pittsburgh. Without a running attack, Rogers will be faced several 3rd down and long situations and that is when his patience will be tested.
Key #2 The Packers offensive line
We have heard a lot of about the Steelers offensive lines and their short comings this week. But 34 years old Packers LT Chad Clifton allowed 8 sacks this year and is playing hurt. He will have to deal with James Harrison who just might be playing his best football. There won’t be much help for Clifton because Lamar Woodley will be licking his chops while getting to face a rookie Right tackle. Woodley will be especially motivated due to his contract status. A big game on the biggest stage would be like hitting the lottery. Furthermore, if the Packers are going to spread the field with 4 wide receivers, than there won’t be a lot extra help in protection for Rogers.
Conclusion
The Packers can certainly win this game. No one will be surprised if they do. But the Steelers have a two dimensional offense with Rashard Mendenhall playing his best football of his career. The Steelers defense led the league in the fewest yards per pass and fewest yards per rush allowed. The Packers offense is one dimensional and all the pressure is on their young quarterback who hasn’t won anything. Common sense and a little bit of fact checking tells me that the Steelers should win. Maybe all of these Packer backers know something about this matchup that I don’t.
But I doubt it….
Look for the Packers to turn the football over.
Pittsburgh 24 Packers 20
Good analysis, I like all the experts picking against the Steelers, they always play better in that role. However, I still think that LeBeau's approach to the Packers passing attack is our weak link. One thing he tends to do too early is call off the pass rush, and at that point, our CBs get exposed as "vunerable" aka QBs have too much time to find an opening and make a play. I like our chances, but I hope Tomlin has both his feet up his coordinators' asses, because neither can be boneheaded tomorrow. DL needs to keep Harrison on the Pass Rush and not in coverage, and BA needs to not run sweeps or draws or pull guards on the 1 yard line.
http://www.pittsburghswagger.com
i cant wait for the game
Great analysis Dutch. I try not to let my heart rule over my head when I pick a game. In this case my heart & my head both like the Steelers. I have been asking myself what is going on with the overwhelming support of the Packers. I would not be shocked at all to see the Packers win, but several factors make me pick the Steelers.
(One)The Steelers always seem to play their best football when they have a chip on their shoulders.They will definitely come in focused & angry with almost everyone picking them too lose.(Two) The Super Bowl experience factor is not even close. I do not believe the Super Bowl is like any other game or that nerves go away after a few plays. Countless stories have come up over the years of players folding on the big stage.(Three) The Steelers simply have more explosive/impact players than the Packers on both sides of the ball. Green bay has… Rodgers, Jennings, Raji, Mathews, Woodson, Williams. Pittsburgh has… Ben, Wallace, Mendenhall, Ward, Miller, Hampton, Harrison, Woodley, Farrior, Timmons, Polamalu. I think Mendenhall & Miller are substantially better at their positions than anything the Packers have, & could be HUGE.(Four) The Packers Defense is good, but I do not put it in the same class as Pittsburgh. They are one of the all time great Defenses against the run. The Steelers can make the Packers one dimensional. Anytime they can do that, I like their chances. (Finally) Ben. He has proven time & time again that he does not wilt in the big moment. In fact he thrives in it. He led one of the 2 greatest clutch drives in NFL history( Montana the other). That has to count for something.
Pounceys absence does concern me a great deal, but I think the Steelers should still be able to run the ball effectively enough on an over rated Packers run Defense.These reasons, along with the key stats you gave, will lead the Steelers to a Seventh Super Bowl Championship.
"the superior conference that averaged 0.2 yards per play higher"
Great research as usual, but is that stat even worth mentioning to determine the superior conference? How small does it have to be to be irrelevant?
1) Polamalu's health will be decide factor I think. Does he play lights out or like he did in the last two playoff games?
2) Any chance Mike Wallace makes it three for three for Steelers WRs and Super Bowl MVPs?
Loving this analysis. A little different than usual, too. It has been hard to find anything of depth out there on the game, and I am so disillusioned with the talking heads and their "analysis." My 6 year old gives better arguments than they do. Thanks for putting some thought into the article.
I agree with your post almost completely. I think ST's are the joker card in this one, especially field position. WE need to start drives at the 20 or better. Kinda sick of safeties! .lol..The only thing about ST's is they are mostly unpredictable. Hope we have a great contribution from those guys today.
If the Steelers have a good day on ST's and take care of the football, I really think they win this one on the order of 28-13. But they almost never seem to win blowouts or near blowouts so it'll probably be 28-20. They never make it easy..drives me nuts.
I believe that a lot of media are playing devils advocate and trying to make this look like the matchup is very close. And the myriad of casual fans are always attracted to the NEW hot QB. Rodgers is a nice story and he's emerging as an elite guy so people want to jump on the bandwagon. Just human nature..If I didn't have a rooting interest in the Steelers, I might pick a team based on the emerging star too.
It's the almost complete lack of respect for what the Steelers have accomplished since 2005 in particular that kinda burns me up. That will make this one all the sweeter.
Well my prediction couldn't have been more wrong. It was a great season though. We move on.
Exactly, had the same rationale,and curiously that is almost exactly what happened innit? damn coordinators! But hey, see for the good side, Bruce Arians is gone, be it fair or not, the weakest link in the staff is gone! buhbye Douche Arians!
Surprisingly, my prediction was absolutely correct, I not only predicted the 2 teams that played today but the winner, and that was most precisely done at 09/09/10! I placed 2 bets at a famous website in that day with a "combined" third one that I would win both (1.steelers as afc champions and 2.packers superbowl champions) the website system didnt accept the combined bet because as it seems those two bets cannot be combined according to their silly system, but the original 2 bets were procesed anyways making me lose the opportunity to multiply the accumulative spread ofc, gosh i could have won so much, about 23x(sprd+sprd x overall bet right?), but its ok, i know i've ridek a super cool "black swan" today, and guess what, Im brazilian! haha sorry for playing the Phil Helmuth here but, wearing proudly my Greg Lloyd jersey I have to confess, today is my day! And the best part of it all, u know what is? Bruce Arians is gone! buhbye Brucy! ;)))))
let me ask, am I the only die hard steelers fan who saw it happen? Am I the only here (sorry, didnt read all comments) that thought the Steelers didnt deserve the 7 ring from the start? Bruce Arians? Really? Suicham or whateever his name is, really? Legursky? Bruce Arians the luckiest man alive, really? I dont think so! I am so happy right now I have to share with you guys, I have won shit loads today with the following bets, at 09/09/10 I bet 100 bucks online that the superbowl would be steelers x packers AND that the packers would win it, today I bet 500 more
oh damn, im so drunk n stoned i forgot to delete the last 4 lines there, please disregard it , oh and sorry again for the cockyness, but hey, its my day, and im in freaking Sao Paulo!!! lol
Yawn. You predicted & won nothing.
Apologies.
moneywise just enough to buy me a new computer, but damn, i have to say its pretty cool to win a 0.3% chance bet against my team , im not sad at all, and im very positive for the years to come conserning the steelers, think about it, a new OC and a new Pouncey broder in the. line and we will not only get to seventh heaven very soon, but deserving it! wich is way nicer!
Well, this one probably hurts a bit:
[Myth #1 = The Steelers pass defense is the weak link]
Packers had, by my quick count, at least 5 passing plays of 20+ yards. Not sure whether that is their highest single-game total on the year, but I'm sure it's close.
[Myth #2 = The Packers have a dominant defensive line.]
Not a bad idea to question the conventional wisdom here, but "myth" is also a strong word. The Steelers certainly didn't have their way with the Packers' d-line. I'd say the teams were fairly well matched on this account. Myth busted.
[Myth #3 The Packers passing offense is much more explosive than Pittsburgh’s.]
As you suggest, I'd say compare completions of 20+ yards. Pittsburgh Steeler receivers had a great day, making some tough catches. The GB receivers were seemingly trying to make Rogers look bad, dropping more than one sure touchdown and several crucial would-be first-down throws. Still, even with the disparity there you have to hand it to GB for an explosive passing offense.
[Myth #4 The Packers don’t need a running game to beat the Steelers]
Packers net 50 yards rushing on the day. Rogers + defense brings the game home.
So by my count . . . this analysis was 1/4 on the myths. I think your analysis on the keys to the game might have been good, and really the Packers stepped up to the challenges you mention.
Congrats to the Packers and their fans. Better luck next year, Steelers fans.
Although I wanted the Steelers to win so badly… I just did not see them coming out of this one with a Win. When it comes to playing top ranked QBs, the Steelers just can't beat them. That is why I was so upset when the Steelers lost to both Drew Brees and Tom Brady. And this is why I simply did not believe the Steelers were going to beat Green Bay. Now granted… the turnovers did not help 1 bit. But guess who capitalized on every one of those turnovers? A top ranked QB named Aaron Rodgers.
The Steelers had them when it was 17-21, but the Mendy fumble killed us. But it wasn't just that fumble, it was also the 2 interceptions that lead up to that fumble as well. I can only imagine how the game would have been without any turnovers from the Steelers.
great post Daniel! A good Steeler is not depressive today, he knows the best team won and has surpassed irrational frustrations, lets work for a true seventh heaven showdown next year with a better coordenated offense, with another Pouncey on the line perhaps and another playmaker for our secondary! Im also praying for Tomlin to get more confortable next year trying to "influence" his coordenators more , like pushing them to change things that clearly are not working like almost anything BA does and that weird "Soft" (preventish) mode Lebeau applies everytime he faces a very good pass offense, I mean, if he cannot adapt to the Rogers and Bradys and Breeses, we will have a tough time next year I tell u! Its Tomlins job to try to "mold" and improve the coordenators job too , I guess!
Can't turn the ball over three times and win. It is amazing we even made it close. If we take care of the ball, we win that game.
The Packers don't have five/six drops of perfectly thrown balls, they probably put up 34 on us even without the turnovers.
Where did you hear that BA was fired? Sounds like bullshit to me. He wasn't the reason for the loss.
The question is, are the Steelers going to be happy with cornerbacks the level of Aaron Williams or Jimmy Smith who they could get in 1st but maybe even the 2nd round, or will they do what they rarely do and trade up to the next level. Its doubtful they will be lucky enough to get one of the top three guys to fall to the late teens.
He is the reason we dont get to a superbowl every single year dude, he is dumb as a mule! He is probably the "worst achiever per roster " in the nfl. If our D was just ok, we would never ever get close to a conference final under his offense!
My question is, do we go G or T if we dont pick a corner in the first round? Im honestly more worried with our tackle position right now then with our guards. Both tackle positions have issues, I mean, am I the only guy here who has never been a Starks fan?
if the steelers draft a defensive back in the 1st rd or 2nd round of draft all lebeau and tomlin will do is have them rotting on the bench all season because they don't trust rookies. we'll have to see how well crezdon butler understands and comprehends lebeaus defence going into his second season to warrant any playing time on defence and where the hell keenan lewis stands ,probably on the waiver line. it would be nice to sign a #2 free agent next to ike who won't break the bank.
I think you draft the most NFL ready at either position. Even if it is just RG or LG, a young body that is ready to go is better than a project. IF there is one of each available at 31, then you go with T unless the Guard's name is Pauncey.
Not completely true. I know Revis would have ended up starting his rookie year if they drafted him. I also think that the top two and possibly 3 CBs (who may all be out of reach for the Steelers to even trade up for) would be able to start or at least bust in at nickel fairly early in the next season. I am hoping that the Steelers take a hard look at Asomugha, and maybe find a way to justify the bloated salary he is going to demand. They go after FAs occasionally but usually not ones that big.
Agreed about Asomugha. He's said he wants to go to a contender. They can let BMac and Gay go if they sign Asomugha. Resign Ike. Get either Butler or Lewis to play nickle and get a good young, fast, coverage safety in the second round. They can then use the first round to get a good OG – hopefully Pouncey. Mankins was taken 31st by the Pats.