“Why aren’t they running!? Denver has the worst run D in the league!! Arians should be fired! I knew Whisenhunt was better!!”
I think I summed up mid-game family room conversation all over Steeler Nation on Sunday night.
To Whom It May Concern
Let me do over my post-game rant from Monday. Here it is, fyi….. I stand by most of my feelings/comments, but looking back, I disagree with a few. Let me get a few things out of the way before we get to the FUN FACTS. I still believe the Steelers win this game if they throw the ball 10 more times. Call me crazy.
Hey, when the Steelers threw the ball, they scored. If you add up all the runs/passes on their 4 scoring drives, they threw the ball 62% of the time on those drives. I stick by many of my post-game ramblings (heat of the moment comments from Monday) I was RIPPED by some because I suggested the Steelers ran the ball too much. The Broncos were FORCING the Steelers to throw the ball. If they’re putting 8, 9, 10 guys in the box you HAVE TO pass. If you want to run the ball later in the game, you have to loosen up the defense in the air first. A few well executed deep passing plays and all of a sudden Lynch, LBs, and other defenders are dropping into coverage and blitzing less. You have to deter the defense from crowding the line. How do you do that? Get early success in the passing game. I wanted the Steelers to run the ball all over Denver just like the rest of the world, but like we saw in the Arizona game, you cant ram your head into a wall over and over and expect the long run you break once in a while is going to be enough to build a real rushing attack. Ben is a good enough QB to beat teams through the air if allowed. If the Steelers had thrown all over Denver on the 1st 2 drives and gotten up 14-0 or 10-0, then they would have forced Denver to back off the line and you would THEN see the Steelers pounding the run with a good run/pass mix against 7 men in the box for the rest of the game.
In addition, who cares if Denver has a bad rush defense statistically? If they have 9 men in the box going up against 7 offensive players trying to block those 9 players…the defense is going to win. If the Steelers WRs can’t get free against 2 or 3 DBs, then we don’t deserve to win the game. And why is Steeler Nation so opposed to airing it out? How quickly some of you forget that in the 2005 Super Bowl run, the Steelers THREW THE BALL to set up the run. Remember what we did to the Colts and Broncos? We looked like a new team with that throw-first mentality and it led us to the Super Bowl. In years past, the “run-first conservative approach” in the playoffs from Cowher got us beat in the AFC Championship game a number of times. The lesson here is that you do not always have to RUN THE BALL to set up the pass. It can work both ways. Isn’t Ben a 1st round draft choice? Yes. Has he shown the ability to throw deep and make plays? Yes. Ben has won a Super Bowl and has talent….let him throw all night and all day until the defense gets off the line of scrimmage. Throw 50 times for all I care. (The run/pass ratio was 25:36 fyi)
Last comment: Do some Steeler fans think that just because the Broncos rushing defense was ranked so low that we could run the ball 50x this game and we would automatically win and have success on the ground? This is not a mathematical equation or statistics class or logic 101 or probability. It’s men vs men. Each week is different. The games are not played on paper. Instead of playing the Cincy vs Steeler game next week, why don’t we just add up the “average points per game” for each team and whomever comes out on top we’ll declare a winner? Sound good? I will NAIL this topic in my Frame-by-Frame feature. Watch me. If you think I’m an idiot for suggesting that the Steelers did not pass the ball enough…. look at the facts, results, and defensive formations presented. That may change your mind. Don’t forget Champ Bailey (their best defensive player and the best cover corner in the NFL) was out.
FUN FACTS
After this past game, there are 3 types of Steeler fans out there. Either you think the play-calling and Bruce Arians blew the game, you think our pass defense blew the game, or you think BOTH of those factors are equally responsible for the loss. I’m in category number 3. Offensive Line Breakdown and Analysis goes up later. Frame-by-Frame (this one will be great, I promise) is on the schedule as well, but for now enjoy these numbers.
—————————
Ike Taylor had a bad game, plain and simple. One week he looks like he’s becoming a shutdown corner, the next game he looks like Chad Scott. Polamalu has been very quiet this season. I can’t sugarcoat it. He’s flying around pre-snap and making plays here and there, but he seems to be “everywhere….yet nowhere” if you know what I’m saying. That’s a common term in hockey, where a guy is a speed demon and he’s all over the ice but he’s just never around the puck at opportune times.
On another note, I think our pass defense (as I have been preaching for years) is below average. Look for the Bengals to burn our defense numerous times this weekend. We might win 38-35, but we’re not shutting ANY offense down that has multiple WR options and an above average QB.
Last week this stat was fun, this week it’s a bit boring. A Special Teams Play is a tackle, forced fumble, punt downed near goalline, fumble recovery, onside recovery, etc…
This will be one of the more popular pie charts in my little collection. Kreider played ONE PLAY (first play of the game). Davis was on the field for 9 plays and caught a pass. Want to know how many yards were gained by Willie/Najeh when Davis was in blocking? I’ll break them down by rushing attempt: 1, 3, 1, 2, 15, -3, 1 (20 total yards)
Not real good. This also tells you that the Steelers ran out of the singleback formation a ton.
1WR: 10 plays
2WR: 21 plays
3WR: 19 plays
4WR: 14 plays
5WR: 3 plays
Once again Ward, Miller, Holmes lead the team in receptions. So let’s take a look at something shall we?
There were 36 plays on Sunday in which the Steelers utilized more than 2 WRs. Of those 36 plays, Nate Washington and Cedrick Wilson were only able to pull in 1 reception each? Yes the pass rush bothered Ben at times, yes he was scrambling for his life on occasion, but some of the blame (when you see Ben sitting there with nobody to throw to) must go to Wilson and Washington. They can’t get open. They’re not very good. Once in a blue moon, Washington makes a catch or Wilson runs a reverse for 20 yards and I say “hmmm….maybe this Cedrick Wilson fellow isn’t all bad.” Then he turns into the “real” Cedric Wilson, disappears for 2 weeks and I once again conclude that he’s a bum.
Maybe we can pull a New England here and move Washington and/or Wilson to the other side of the ball to play some defense? Whenever they’re on the field, the ball never goes in their direction so maybe that would translate well if the were lined up the defensive secondary.
The Steelers were behind almost all game and were using a spread offense with many singleback looks. No room for Najeh I guess. Najeh did see plenty of action as the blocking back in Shotgun formations, though. He was the guy in the backfield trying to clean up Simmons’ mess.
One of Ben’s rushing attempts was the 4th-and-1 QB sneak. The other 2 were scrambles.
Parker ran 21 times for 93 yards….not bad at all. Najeh had 6 yards and Ben had 20 (including one real nice scramble)
For the first time all season, the Steelers didn’t rely on running to the left side of the line.
Pittsburgh ran left 10 times, middle 14 times, and right 2 times.
During the course of the past few games, Ben has scrambled and improvised so much that it’s hard to come to any conclusions or say if any specific DBs or LBs were targeted. I want to say “SEE! Dre Bly was on the right side so they never threw over there,” but with scrambles and running around, the passing route/passing play called in the huddle rarely seems to get going on the field.
Ben threw the ball 14 times to the left, 10 over the middle, and 11 to the right side of the field.
Nate Washington’s 40 yard grab and a few Heath Miller catches jack up the “over the middle” stat.
Opening drive of the game….Steelers threw the ball 9 times, ran 3 times.
FYI: The Steelers finished with 35 passes and 26 runs. If the Steelers throw the ball 45 times and run 16, they win. IMO.
The defense was so bad this past weekend that I shouldn’t even waste my time charting them. Our DBs didn’t rack up many tackles because the Bronco WRs often caught the ball then ran out of bounds near the sidelines. Polamalu actually had more tackles today than he has had in weeks.
Our return game continues to struggle. Hey, at least no fumbles right?
This is my favorite stat this week. Guess who had the Steelers defended passes? Anthony Smith (1) and Larry Foote (1)
Cutler was 22/29…. not once was Taylor, Deshea, Clark, Gay, Polamalu, and friends able to deflect a pass. Sad.
Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, and TJ Houshmandzadeh are analyzing our game film right now. I wonder what they’re thinking….
Nice mix on a normal day. However, when the other team hands you a graved invitation that reads:
“Dear Pittsburgh, we are going to load up and stop your running game. If you throw, you have a great chance to pick up 20+ yards and a big passing play on every 1st and 2nd down. If you run, we’ll stop you after 2 yards. Afterall, we have 9 guys at the line of scrimmage and you only have 7. It’s simple math….you CANNOT run against us with this many people in your face. We know you love to be a “smashmouth” team and all, but go ahead and throw, we dare you.
P.S. Our best defensive player and best CB in the league is out of the lineup, too, in case that aids in your decision….
All the Best,
Denver Defensive Coordinator
Later we’ll look at some Frame-by-Frame pics and the Offensive Line Breakdown (brace yourself)
My Favorites:
*Kreider played 1 play
*Steelers had 2 passes defended
*Denver had 8 passes defended
Beautiful analysis as always. Wait until afternoon to do the O-line breakdown, that way everyone can get a few drinks in them at lunch to dull that blow.
Am I the only one who thinks that Polamalu hurts our coverage on alot of pass plays by doing his ‘renegade’ stuff instead of staying in formation?
-Brett Kiesel has been a beast from the standing role.(Sarcasm)
-Troy Polamula has earned the Casper The Friendly Ghost award…He just disappears.
-Kemo for Simmons…Starks for Colon.
I agree with the entire article…Good Stuff Dagger
Great stuff, am I the only one that’s ready for Kreider to get some regular playing time. Davis’ versatility has been either unused or greatly overexaggerated. I’d rather see Kreider pounding linebackers and wearing them down than Davis catching one pass a game for 4 yards (yea that’s his current average). Great call BA for seeing that versatility.
Daggar, you are a fucking genius. I’m dead serious. Rarely do I agree with someone 100% AND am convinced by the presentation, but you managed to do both. Love the graphs and the arguments they statistically resolve. Good job, baby.
The passing versus running is dead on. Arians is boring me with this insipid insistence on some artificial balance. They came out and scored quickly with passing, spread, 4WR sets and mixing it up and then immediately returned to business as usual. The Pass Defense was bad and didnt help, but even with three turnovers, the Steelers could have/should have hung at least 35 on the Broncos — the Pats would have thrown the ball 60 times in that game.
The only problem with this passing thing is… this is still a Cower team. The OL in built for running. Next year will be different. This year we should run into a stacked box now and again to make play action work. The play action was a joke.
Fun read by the way.
Along with this comment
–The only problem with this passing thing is… this is still a Cower team. The OL is built for running. Next year will be different. This year we should run into a stacked box now and again to make play action work. The play action was a joke.–
I want to add that I am not longing for the Cower days, just stating that the talent should be used for what it is good for. The O-line needs to find it’s rhythm through a running game. Thanks for the artical.
Dagger,
Great stuff as always! I have to say I think the run pass thing is missing the point a bit. When they’ve got 9 in the box not any pass play will do given a run blitz is likely. Only quick hits, 3 step drops will work otherwise Ben is toast back there with our average at best pass protection. The types of pass plays we ran in the first half are what killed me not how many we ran.
I agree that we didn’t lose because we failed to run. It made sense to throw the ball against that defense, though, as bigsnack says, you need to have plays that will work against run blitzes and Ben has to learn to get rid of the ball.
One historical quibble. You say that we lost all those AFC championship games by running the ball. In the one game where we were heavily favored and you could blame the loss on the offense — that is, the San Diego game — my recollection is that we passed a lot more than we did during the regular season. O’Donnell threw for more than 300-350 yards, and might have thrown close to 50 passes. But we kept stalling at the 40 yard line and couldn’t score. (Also in the overtime loss to Tennessee, we had first down at the 37 and just needed a few yards to be able to kick a game-winning field goal, but they had Maddox throw three straight incompletions). So it is oversimplification to say that Cowher’s teams lost in the playoffs because they were too wedded to the run.
Every pass is an adventure. I’d like nothing more than to see Ben drop back 3 steps and fire off a slant pass or a quick hook. I just dont see that very often. It’s a great way to beat the blitz, i agree, but I just dont see us using those types of plays.
A few WR screens on Sunday were about as close as we got. Besides that every pass play I saw had about 2 pump fakes, 10 seconds of “scrambling”, etc. No real timing or rhythm to the pass game.
I’ve always been impressed by your numbers, but I’m a little less impressed now, and skeptical of everything you do. Maybe you can explain, I can lose my skepticism and going back to enjoying your analysis.
It seems like you only count pass plays where Ben actually threw the ball. I’d agree with you that we need to pass the ball more often if every time Ben is sacked or fumbled, we got a do-over. But we don’t.
So the actual numbers, if we count every play that was called as a pass play a pass play, regardless of sack, fumble, penalty, Ben scrambles or what-have-you, is that the Steelers pass:run ratio on scoring drives was 23:14, and the pass:run ratio on non-scoring drives was 19:10.
And those numbers seem to be more accurate of the game I watched – we scored when we ran the ball more often than the drives where we passed almost two thirds of the time.
the Steelers had some success running the ball in the 4th qtr because Denver finally got 8 men out of the box. When Denver loaded the box…Pittsburgh couldnt run. When Denver dropped into coverage they could run at will. This is a classic example of the Defense dictating things.
As someone who was at the game, some thoughts:
The run game was there. Parker had two 25+ yard runs and it was not a matter of finally breaking through in the 4th Quarter. It was a maddening situation of Arians/Ben (and let’s not exonerate Ben on the play calling since he is given a lot more discretion to adjust plays) doing everything to avoid running on obvious running downs. No excuse when you have 2ND and two to run at least once to get the first down. No excuse not to use Davenport more as a change of pace. Plus the whole notion of trying to psyche out the Broncos was stupid. Ben’s “I will be handing off all night” comment was stupid because it did not fool Shanahan. Let’s not forget that Shanny has been around a while and won two Super Bowls. Nor was his defensive coordinator born overnight. It was a brilliant scheme – focus on the run and trust your corners. Even without Bailey, and even when Ben had time, there were no open receivers.
Regarding the defense, two big components: yes, Troy is not his usual self. Not only is he failing to make big plays but he is out of position causing big plays to occur. Tomlin all but outed him as a culprit noting he was out of position on two of their big plays. Second, the loss of Smith was huge. Not having him on the line kept the blitzers from getting any penetration.
Finally, let’s not read too much into this. While I do suspect Shanahan is headed into his Cowher ’06 stage of his career, give him two weeks and he will devise an offensive game plan that no defense can stop. And despite the horrific manner in which we played, we lost by only three points, and as a Bronco fan admitted, all the breaks cut the Bronco way, including some very suspect ones. But I won’t pull a Holmgren; we deserved to lose; we were outplayed in every phase of the game. Time to move on. To Tomlin’s credit, he recognizes that. Last gut check game, after the loss to Arizona, he delivered. Somehow I suspect he will again. If not, we just have to admit that we are closer to the Broncos/Chargers than the Pats/Colts.
Some problems with these graphs/stats:
Times Targeted – Given Steeler’s heavy zone defense stylings, how can this stat have any value? How can you determine who is being targeted on most plays.
FB Playing Time – I thought you wanted Arians to call more pass plays; then wouldn’t you want this to be even lower. FBs are not exactly conducive to passing.
WR Formations – I think a lot of this had to do with Foxworthy, Bly, Lynch and co. And as you move back from the ball the Bronco defense gets progressively better and by better I mean elite. Don’t forget that this is one of the few defenses that can match up well with both the Colts and Pats.
Yards Per Pass Play – I tend to agree with the comment that Ben’s yards per pass play number would have been better if he passed fewer times; not more. In those games where his YPP stats were high it is not as if he was lighting up the sky. Instead it was his moderation that kept defenses off balances. And the Steelers and Ben will never be the Pats/Colts who have a positive marginal utility in passing more.
The Steelers attempted more pass plays in the first half than run plays… The O-line sucks balls, the WR’s are mediocore at best. Blame goes there, not on Ben or Arians or Tomlin. The gameplan was solid, execution was a joke. Good thing we locked up Simmons huh!