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Does Ladell Betts have Fumblitis?
By Biggie, Resident Stat Boy | November 12, 2007
Yes.
After watching Ladell take his first carry of Sunday’s game and promptly give it to the Eagles, I went through the usual emotions of a fan at such a distressing juncture: Anger, despair, and homicidal rage. After I’d calmed down, though (as in when we got the ball right back), I more or less got over it and watched the rest of the Redskins’ self-destruction. There is no question, however, that Betts’ fumble was a momentum-killer and not exactly his first time coughing it up, and after reading and hearing many a fan complain about his ongoing “fumblitis”, I decided to crunch the numbers.
What I did, to be more precise, was take the numbers of Betts and nine starting running backs, one of them being Clinton Portis, who have both started the majority of their teams’ games since 2004 (the beginning of the Gibbs II era) and were already NFL veterans (in or beyond their third year) at the beginning of the 2004 season. I used these parameters in hopes of excluding players who had poor rookie seasons when it came to fumbles but who later improved, in addition to comparing players that are generally considered to be proven starters in the league. Here are their numbers:
| Name | Fumbles (since 2004) | Carries (since 2004) | Catches (since 2004) | Total Touches (since 2004) | Touches per Fumble | Fumble Percentage (by touches) |
| Ladell Betts | 10 | 481 | 87 | 568 | 56.8 | 1.76% |
| Clinton Portis | 11 | 1003 | 110 | 1113 | 101.2 | .99% |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 11 | 1202 | 196 | 1398 | 127.1 | .79% |
| Thomas Jones | 6 | 1010 | 135 | 1145 | 190.8 | .52% |
| Shaun Alexander | 17 | 1124 | 62 | 1186 | 69.8 | 1.43% |
| Rudi Johnson | 13 | 1132 | 71 | 1203 | 92.5 | 1.08% |
| Fred Taylor | 7 | 810 | 77 | 887 | 126.7 | .79% |
| Edgerrin James | 15 | 1213 | 143 | 1356 | 90.4 | 1.11% |
| Jamal Lewis | 15 | 948 | 71 | 1019 | 67.9 | 1.47% |
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 979 | 101 | 1080 | 135 | .74% |
So, out of all ten running backs I compared, Betts has by far the worst numbers when it comes to losing the football. Only Shaun Alexander and Jamal Lewis come close, although both have had outstanding seasons (Lewis’ 2,000 yard year in 2003 and Alexander’s 28-touchdown 2005) that tend to sweep memories of their poor ball handling under the rug. If one assumes that my running back choices represent a fairly comprehensive group of starting-caliber players, then the average numbers for an experienced starting running back would be a fumble for every 100.84 touches and a .99% fumble percentage (so, basically, they’d hold on to the ball 99 out of 100 times). Using this standard, someone like Clinton Portis would have average ball security for a player of his caliber, while someone like Thomas Jones can be considered to have excellent control and someone like Shaun Alexander or Jamal Lewis fairly bad grip.
When one takes a look at Ladell Betts’ numbers, on the other hand, it’s obvious that he is nowhere near players like Jones or even Portis when it comes to holding on to the ball. In the 2007 Redskins’ offense, Portis is getting 20.1 carries a game (181 carries over nine games) and has fumbled three times (significantly more than his average should be). However, two of his fumbles came in one game, and if we call that an “off game”, he’s left with one fumble in eight games – not bad at all.
When one looks at Betts’ numbers as a starter last season, the same can not be said for the Redskins’ draftee. Betts had six fumbles in total for last year, including two that came while serving as a backup to Portis. If one excludes those two in order to get a clear picture of what he did as a starter, that’s still four fumbles in nine games (granted, only one more than Portis). However, unlike Portis, Betts did not have an off game that year – all of his fumbles came in separate contests, and he had one in each of the last three games of the season. That’s not a bad game, that’s a trend. To make matters worse, every one of those games was decided by six points, meaning that a mistake like a costly fumble could be a game-changer.
And wouldn’t you know it, two of Betts’ final-three-games fumbles came in the fourth quarter – one of them on what could have been a game-winning drive. The Redskins lost that game (to the Rams) in overtime.
Why is it, though, that Betts is so bad when it comes to holding on to the ball? Before 2005, the guy had only fumbled twice in his three-year career, with both of those coming in his rookie season of 2002. The answer isn’t playing time: in 2003, Betts had only 79 total touches, while in 2004, he had only 105. In 2005, however, Betts had three fumbles while only getting his hands the ball 99 times. Since the beginning of the ‘05 season, Betts has fumbled 10 times in 37 regular-season games – a little more than two seasons. Portis, on the other hand, has fumbled in eight games out of 48 as a Redskin; this should put to rest any doubts about who the better running back is, at least when it comes to turning the ball over.
There is clearly something wrong with how Betts holds on the ball or with his concentration, and if he can’t fix it, the Redskins would be better off not putting him on the field in the fourth quarter with the outcome of the game still at stake. He has contributed to or outright caused losses in three of the team’s last twelve games, and unless he can pull a Tiki Barber and get his act together, more disasters are to follow.
Topics: NFL, Redskins, Sports | 13 Comments »
November 12th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
Awesome.
November 12th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
They should cut his ass and activate Marcus Mason from the practice squad.
November 12th, 2007 at 7:11 pm
I hear Mike Hart doesn’t fumble…
good job with the research.
November 12th, 2007 at 8:25 pm
tiki WAS a fumbler until he learned how to hold the ball, courtesy of coughlin. he was a totally different back from then on.
but, the major difference was that tiki was a quality back who became a hall of famer once he cured his fumbling problem. betts isnt even close to be a starting quality back, much less, one for the ages.
anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves badly. the skins should do themselves a favor and cut him in favor of elevating mason from the PS..betts’ fumbles are game killers and his worth has been severely compromised by this awful habit.
November 12th, 2007 at 10:26 pm
I beg to differ shally… I bet he could start for 10 or more teams in the league.
November 12th, 2007 at 11:27 pm
Betts is a balanced, hard runner with above average catching ability. He has pretty decent vision, but no patience, hence his suckiness in the redzone as compared to Portis. Portis finds a way to squirt into the endzone, while Betts just tries to plow his way on nearly every play. His lack of patience pays off on screens, because he just gets the ball and goes for daylight. Portis for the longest time was terrible on screen plays for some reason.
November 13th, 2007 at 1:25 am
Great analysis. I was willing to give Betts the benefit of the doubt for his fumbles. I thought it was unfair to blame him for fumbles that occur when he only carries the ball 3 times a game, but your analysis shows this is a trend. Betts, hold on to the damn ball!
November 13th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
to black ops
respectfully totally disagree with you. we tend to have a very inflated sense of what our players are worth, as redskins fans.. betts is not close to being a starter in the nfl, despite the audition that he provided the skins in his run-up to a contract. he doesnt run with the same intensity he showed in that “audition”
he is a fumbler and a drive killer. for a relatively big back, he lacks the ability to move the pile or get yards after contact. he is a decent change of pace back, most usefull as a receiver out of the backfield. i think he should be thought of the same way that kenny watson was thought of– a decent receiver who can provide a game as a spot reserve, once in a while. but anyone who thinks that betts is the second coming of lamont jordan or travis henry or thomas jones or even michael pittman is just deluding themselves. i wouldnt even put him in the same class as julius jones. there is ZERO chance that if the skins release him, he will be found starting for anyone next year. nobody is THAT desperate, much less 7 or 8 teams
November 13th, 2007 at 10:15 pm
Dolphins, Bucs, Broncos, Packers, Bears, Texans, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Browns…etc… he’s better than all of their starting backs.
November 13th, 2007 at 11:36 pm
keep drinking the kool-aid if you wish. he wont be starting for anyone next year, and hopefully, he wont be on the skins roster at all. the best of all worlds would be if someone actually gave us a pick in return for betts. but cutting him would be a case of addition via subtraction at the very least because it would give someone like mason a chance to prove his worth.
i have see him flame out 3 times this year and take the skins hopes down with him. games are the cumulative efforts of all the players, but i hope to never again see betts in the lineup for a key play for the skins again.
nice man. decent person. so was trung candidate. neither belongs as a starter
November 15th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Excellent post, this puts numbers on something many Redskins feared last season when Ladell was the man.
July 20th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
blackops u r a retard if u think that betts is better then jamal lewis lewis has a 2000 yard season under his belt betts just sucks balls he isnt even good enuf to start for the bears
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