« Breakdancing with Mr. Rogers | Home | NHL 10 trailer »
The most important stat in hockey
By Dutch | May 28, 2009
We have talked about the “most important stat in the NFL” on this site many times. Well, it’s time to explore “the most important stat in hockey”.
There is no stat in hockey that is more important than SHOTS ON GOAL DIFFERENTIAL. Not save %, Not shooting %, Power play %, etc, etc… If you want to know who is likely to contend for the Stanley Cup each year, take a look at your team’s SOG Differential. There is no better indicator.
In fact , you can analyze the matchups until you’re blue in the face, but nothing will put your money on the right side of each series, quite like this stat. If you’re looking for an edge to pick the winners next year or in the finals, here are the details.
Look below at the following Cup winning teams since 1991. Notice anything in common?
Each cup winning team finished the Regular season with a POSITIVE shots on goal differential.
1991 pens 91-92 = 31-30 = +1
1992 pens 92-93 = 34-32 = +2
1993 Montreal 93-94 = 32-30 = +2
1994 New Jersey 94-95 = 30 – 25 = +5
1995 Colorado 95-96 = 32 – 28 = +4
1996 Detroit 96-97 = 33 – 25 = +8
1997 DETROIT 97-98 = 30-25 = +5
1998 DALLAS 98 99 = 27 – 23 = +4
1999 NEW JERSEY 99-00 = 32 – 25 = +7
2000 COLORADO = 00-01 = 29 – 25 = +4
2001 DETROIT 01-02 = 30 -26 = +4
2002 NEW JERSEY 02-03 = 31 – 23 = +8
2004 TAMPA BAY 03-04 = 30 -25 = +5
2005 CAROLINA 05-06 = 31 – 30 = +1
2006 ANAHEIM 06-07 = 30 – 26 = +4
2007/2008 Redwings +11 ………………………. perhaps highest ever
2008/2009 Playoff teams SOG differential end of regular season stats
When Dan Bylsma took over, all he talked about was playing more in the offensive zone. Get pucks to the net, control the game, possess the puck, and winning games by forcing the other team to play defense the majority of the time. He said that is what Championship teams are all about. Clearly he is correct as the stats above show. He also obviously had an impact on this years Pens team.
The Penguins are -1.3 on the season ………..but they are +6.5 under new head coach Dan Bylsma!
Take a look at the 16 teams that made the playoffs this year:
Eastern Conference
1. Boston -0.5
2. Washington +4.0
3. New Jersey +3.5
4. Pittsburgh -1.3 (+6.5 SINCE TRADE DEADLINE!)
5. Philadelphia -2.8
6. Carolina +3.7
7. NY Rangers +2.7
8. Montreal -1.7
Western Conference
1. San Jose +6.0
2. Detroit +8.4
3. Vancouver -0.7
4. Chicago +4.1
5. Calgary +2.5
6. St. Louis -0.9
7. Columbus +1.1
8. Anaheim -0.2
ROUND 1
1. Boston beats Montreal: In a battle of two teams with negative Shots on Goal differential, Boston gets the huge edge because they doing everything else so much better. (Boston was #1 in shooting % and #1 in save % on the season)
2. Caps beat Rangers: Both teams were in the positive SOG for the season with the edge going to the caps (caps +4, rangers +2.7) While the caps have the Edge, the edge is a small one and there should be no surprise that Series went a long ways. Caps should have been the pick here however.
3. Carolina beats Devils: Both teams neck and neck in terms of SOG differential for the season; both teams were at about +3.5. The numbers tell us that this series would probably be a long one and it’s a coin flip pick. result> carolina wins a close one in 7. Again, no surprise.
4. Pens beat Flyers: Both teams finished with a negative SOG differential for the season. BUT, with a new coach and 2 new players , plus a returning Gonchar, the Pens were a dramatically different +6.5 SOG differential after the trade dealing until end of Regular season. The Flyers were -2.8 on the season and -2.4 after the trade deadline, bascially no difference. Huge Edge to Pens. Pens win in 6.
5. Detroit beats Blue Jackets: Detroit was league leading +9 SOG differential, just 2 shots shy of the all time high mark of +11 they set 1 year ago. The Blue Jackets were only a +1 on the season. That is a +8 SOG differential for the series matchup (det at +9, columbus +1) Funny how this worked out…..the Jackets get out shot an average of 27-35 per game for a difference of -8 in their series against the Wings. Just what the numbers called for and the result is Detroit destroys CBJ in 4 games.
6. Chicago beats Calgary: Chicago at +4 SOG differential on the season vs Calgary at +2.5. We would expect a long competitive series with the Blackhawks coming out on top. Result > Chicago won the series in 6 games.
7. Vancouver vs St. Louis: Both teams in the negative SOG differential for the season but huge edges to the Canucks in just about every other category. Canucks should have been the pick here but neither team should have been taken seriously to win Cup.
8. Anaheim beats Sharks: Upset special…….Sharks were 2nd best on the season at +6 , but their play fell off to only +3.1 from the Trade Deadline on. The Ducks had a negative Differential on the season, but a dramatic improvement to +3.3 after the Trade Deadline. This could have served as a warning to us all that an upset could be in the making as the Sharks were heavy favorites to win despite both teams playing on an equal level since the trade deadline. One would then expect a very long series here with no clear winner. Result > Ducks Goalie Hiller plays better than Nabokov.
ROUND 2
1. Pens beat Washington: Pens +6.5 after the trade deadline. Washington +4 on the season. Edge goes to Pittsburgh and the result was Pens winning the series in 7 but completely dominating the shots on goal battle as well as puck possession time.
2. Chicago beats Vancouver: Canucks were a -150 favorite to win the series….. for what reason…. I do not know. The Blackhawks had a +4 SOG diff on the season. The Canucks were a -0.7 and history tells us that the Blackhawks are the Sharp pick. Result > Chicago in 6.
3. Carolina beats Boston: Upset special…..Boston was a heavy favorite for a few reasons. Their #1 seed and overall record during the regular season. They also went 4-0 against Carolina on the season. BUT…. the stats show Carolina was a +3 on the Season for SOG diff, and the Bruins were a -0.5 and were a -1.8 after the trade deadline. This tells us that Carolina should be able to take time and space away from the Bruins and out-shoot them in enough games to pull off the upset. The pick here is Carolina and sure enough, Carolina wins in 7.
4. Detroit vs Ducks: Detroit was +9 on the season and the Ducks were -0.2 but as mentioned above, the Ducks were a +3.3 after the trade deadline. The pick here is Detroit as they will out-shoot the Ducks. Only a goalie standing on his head could enable the Ducks to steal this series. Damn, he almost did (Hiller’s run through the postseason ends with him ranking #1 in Sv % in playoffs)
Round 3
1. Pens vs Carolina: Pens +6.5 after the Trade Deadline vs Carolina +3…………Pens Sweep.
2. Detroit vs Chicago: Wings +9 vs Blackhawks +4…………..Red Wings win in 5.
Any surprise that we are 2 days away from a rematch of last year’s final? The two teams with the best SOG differential are battling for the Cup and you should have seen it coming.
Dutch
wmbs590 radio
Topics: NHL, Pittsburgh Penguins, Sports, Washington Capitals | 2 Comments »
May 28th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
totally awesome analysis Dutch.
Let’s hope the Wings and their +9 aren’t too much for the Pens and their +6.5 to handle
May 28th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Incredible stuff, Dutch. Now I can talk to my hockey friends and pretend that I actually know something.