When the Penguins and Red Wings met last year in the Finals, I had not one doubt that Detroit would not only beat the Pens in the series, but they would do it with domination. Last years Detroit Red Wings were one of the great teams of all time. For a single season, they just might have been most powerful, efficient hockey machine
ever. They not only got more shots per game then any team in the league, they gave up the fewest shots per game as well. In fact their +11 shots on goal differential was the largest differential I could locate going back 20 years. Here is a quick glance of the shots on goal differential averages of all cup winners going back the early 90′s.
1991 pens 91-92 = 31-30 = +1
1992 pens 92-93 = 34-32 = +2
1993 Montreal 93-94 = 32-30 = +2
1994 New Jersey 94-95 = 30 – 25 = +5
1995 Colorado 95-96 = 32 – 28 = +4
1996 Detroit 96-97 = 33 – 25 = +8
1997 Detroit 97-98 = 30-25 = +5
1998 Dallas 98 99 = 27 – 23 = +4
1999 New Jersey 99-00 = 32 – 25 = +7
2000 Colorado = 00-01 = 29 – 25 = +4
2001 Detroit 01-02 = 30 -26 = +4
2002 New Jersey 02-03 = 31 – 23 = +8
2004 Tampa Bay 03-04 = 30 -25 = +5
2005 Carolina 05-06 = 31 – 30 = +1
2006 Anaheim 06-07 = 30 – 26 = +4
2007/2008 Red Wings +11
While shots on goal differential is the most important stat in terms of how it relates to winning in the playoffs, last years Wings didn’t stop there. They also ranked best in numerous other categories like goals against average differential, best plus minus of any team, best face off %, most 5 on 4 goals, best record vs the Sagarin top ten teams, best win %
when outshooting an opponent, and more. Picking the Wings to win the series last year might have been the easiest pick I have ever made. There was no doubt about it.
So with that in mind, the question everyone is wondering is will this series be any different than last year? In order to make the best possible assessment of Wings/Pens II, lets compare last years Red Wings to this years Red Wings.
Shots on Goal differential
2007/08 Red Wings > +11 (34 shots per game – 23 shots per game)
2008/09 Red Wings > +8 (36 shots per game – 28 shots per game)
Face off percentage
2007/08 Red Wings > 53%
2008/09 Red Wings > 55%
5 on 5 goals for and against
2007/08 Red Wings > +1.41
2008/09 Red Wings > +1.21
Power play conversion %
2007/08 Red Wings > 20%
2008/09 Red Wings > 25%
Power play Kill %
2007/08 Red Wings > 84% (ranked 8th)
2008/09 Red Wings > 78% (ranked 25th)
Win % when out shooting Opponent
2007/08 Red Wings > 71% (ranked #1)
2008/09 Red Wings > 64% (ranked #3)
Record VS sagarin Top Ten teams
2007/08 Red Wings > 39 wins 15 losses
2008/09 Red Wings > 22 wins 14 losses
Win % when scoring 1st in a game
2007/08 Red Wings > 86%
2008/09 Red Wings > 81%
Goals against Average Differential
2007/08 Red Wings > 3.52 – 2.52 = +.59
2008/09 Red Wings > 3.07 – 2.18 = +.89
Shooting %
2007/08 Red Wings > 9.2%
2008/09 Red Wings > 9.8%
Shooting % allowed
2007/08 Red Wings > 9.3%
2008/09 Red Wings > 10.3%
Goals allowed by period
2007/08 Red Wings
1st period > 64
2nd Period > 82
3rd Period > 63
2008/09 Red Wings
1st Period > 82
2nd period > 87
3rd period > 97
Goals scored by period
2007/08 Red Wings
1st period > 99
2nd Period > 106
3rd Period > 100
2008/09 Red Wings
1st Period > 95
2nd Period > 125
3rd Period > 123
Looking at the above comparison between this years Redwings and last years team, it is clear where the difference is. The difference is that the Red Wings Defense isn’t as dominant. They are more offensive minded than last season. I believe Niklas Kronwall said in a postgame interview early in the season that the Wings needed to tighten up their shots against. Well, that never really happened. To further illustrate this point, just look below at the following numbers. These numbers represent all of the Shots Allowed by Detroit in the previous playoff games leading up to game 1 against the Pens. Included are this years and last years stats for comparison.
2007/08 Redwings shots allowed (game by game) 1st three rounds of the playoffs
20
27
29
27
21
20
21
20
33
31
21
18
18
22
21
29
10 Games allowing 22 shots per game or less
Only 2 games over 30 Shots per game
============
2009/09 Redwings shots allowed (game by game) 1st three rounds of the playoffs
21
25
32
32
24
46
23
28
17
28
27
32
39
27
28
Only 2 game allowing 22 Shots per game or less this post season
The Wings defense isn’t what it was a year ago and based on that alone, we can expect the Pens to have a little more room on the ice than they did season. That isn’t the only good news for the Penguins though. The Pens were dead last in shots per game until Dan Bylsma showed up and were only getting 27 shots on net per game. Since Bylsma took over, the Pens are cooking with 34 shots a game. This dramatic 8 shot swing would be the difference in being ranked dead last in the league to ranked about 2nd best in this stat category.
Plain and simple….Bylsma gets it. He understands that you can’t win Cups by getting outshot. Captain Sidney Crosby bought in and he often talks about how his team is out-chancing the other team during interviews conducted between periods. I cannot understate how important this is. Playoff hockey is not about Fancy goals (Malkin’s goal notwithstanding) it’s about getting pucks to the net. And no team does that better than Detroit. That’s why this change in philosophy with the Pens new head coach was paramount in the penguins revival. Great move by Ray Shero to make this move.
Shots on goal differential
Detroit > +8
Pens > +6.5 since Bylsma! (-2 Before Bylsma)
Face off % in playoffs
Detroit > 52%
2007/08 Pens > 47%
2008/09 Pens > 50%
Shots allowed per game
Detroit > 28 shots allowed per game
Pens > 28 Shots allowed per game
Last year the Red wings only allowed 15% of opponents power plays to be converted. This year they have slipped to a subpar 23% allowed. They have allowed 26% in the playoffs. With the once struggling Penguin power play finally seeing a breakthrough at 24% success rate in their last 5 games, this could be an area the Pens could exploit.
Summary
Unlike Last year, the Penguins are going to get their shots. Will they outshoot Detroit? Most likely no, but they don’t have to. As long as they are competitive in the shots battle (which I believe they will be) , then their superior shooting % will make up for the rest. The Pens should see more room on the ice than last year, although much less room than what the Canes, Caps, and Flyers offered.
The Red Wings offense is a juggernaut, however, and they will never be out of a game no matter what the score is which means Fluery will have his toughest assignment of the postseason. It won’t be good enough for him to just stop a few quality shots; the Wings will be bring tons of shots and he will need to be very consistent and will need to take his game to another level. Another fun stat is that no team has defeated Detroit in the past 5 years in the playoffs without at least a .925 save %.
Crosby’s improved ability to win faceoff’s will also be huge. Winning faceoff’s leads to puck possession and eventually to more shots for your team and less for the opponent.
Conclusion
This Series will be incredible. This is like Lakers vs Celtics, Cowboys vs Steelers. The numbers show that while Detroit has slipped defensively a bit, they are still a great great team that is worthy of back-to-back championships. I would pick Detroit to win only if they weren’t playing against the next dynasty in the NHL. 1 year ago, the Pens weren’t ready…but they are now. The Red Wings aren’t ready to pass the torch so the Pens will have to go out there and take it from them and I believe defending champions are vulnerable in a 7th game. Uneasy lies the head who wears the crown.
For entertainment purposes, here are my game by game headline predictions.
Game 1 > Pens win
Post game Story > PENS SHOCK WINGS , The Red Wings just found out that this isn’t the baby Pens they faced last year. This years Penguins are all grown up.
Game 2 > Wings win
With the Wings already down a game in this series, things did not look good for them heading into game 2 as they had to play on Back-to-Back nights. Yet, the Champions were able to reach down for something extra and score 2 goals in the last 5 mins of the 3rd period to win 3-2.
Game 3 > Pens win
The Wings knew this wasn’t going to be easy. “Hey, we knew how good they were,” says Holmstrom. “we have our work cut out for us.”
Game 4 > Wings win
Detroit took charge early and played perhaps their best game of the series.
Game 5 > Wings win
Detroit is in familiar territory with a chance to eliminate the Penguins in 6 games. Just like last year, they must do it on the road at Mellon Arena. The Penguins have not lost any confidence however….. “We still like our chances. We gotta win game 6 and bring it back here,” says Crosby after losing Game 5.
Game 6 > Pens win
The Penguins jumped on the Wings early and never looked back in front of a sellout crowd in Pittsbiurgh. It’s only fitting that these two great teams will finish this off in a 7th and deciding game.
Game 7 > Pens win Cup
Defending champions are most vulnerable in 7th games, where any bad bounce can cost them a series.
Editors Note: credit to letsgopens and thepensblog for the gathering the pics from across the net for public consumption.
easily the best Stanley Cup Finals breakdown I’ve seen anywhere online.
my heart – Pens in 6.
my brain – Detroit in 6.
Having said that…i could see either team winning in 5, 6, or 7 games. Who the heck knows.
After watching game 1 I think your brain may be right. Pens had no space last night. They looked slow skating with the Wings, which I know shouldn’t be the case. Pens can’t let the Wings dictate tempo like that. Tonight is game 7. If the Pens go down 2 games to none the series is effectively over.
well the Pens played well for 40 minutes. After 3 periods the Pens out-chanced the Wings, got more shots on net, and dominated the 2nd period. All good signs.
Usually in hockey games a bounce or two will go against you or you’ll give up a lucky goal….but to give up 3 lucky/bad bounce goals in one game is something I’ve never seen before. Pens just didn’t have any luck yesterday and you need those breaks to win games. Halfway thru the 2nd the Pens could have been up by 1 or 2 goals but they didn’t cash in. Tonight should be a good one.
Last night for me was one of those games where the game you watched doesn’t seem to match up with the stat sheet afterward. I know some of those numbers look good but watching it on the ice didn’t look as impressive. That said, I know they are capable of playing the Wings better. And no Datsyuk for Game 2 either. We have to take advantage of this.
FYI -
“The Pens were dead last in shots per game until Dan Bylsma showed up and were only getting 27 shots on net per game. Since Bylsma took over, the Pens are cooking with 34 shots a game. This dramatic 8 shot swing would be the difference in being ranked dead last in the league to ranked about 2nd best in this stat category.”
34-27=7 (not 8). ;)
2 games down. I am not a hockey expert but it seemed to me that Malkin and Crosby were getting mobbed by 2 or 3 reds everytime they got the puck but no one else on the Pens seemed able to take advantage of all the attention that Crosby and Malkin were diverting.
Pens just don’t seem to have the all around depth to compete with the Reds.
it’s like we are back in the 90′s and playing the clutch and grab Devils again.
I dont get how they revert back to this crap after making the obstruction and interference calls all year. Mario said it best, “Garage League”
Does Dutch Still like the Penguins to win the 7th game?