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Steelers vs Bengals Preview
By Dutch | November 13, 2009
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals will hook up Sunday at Heinz Field to battle for control of the AFC North division.
If the Bengals are able to pull the upset, they will not only take sole possession of first place in the division, but they will own the head-to-head tie-breaker by virtue of defeating Pittsburgh twice.
The Bengals have also swept the season series against the Baltimore Ravens this year. They held the Ravens to only 21 points in two games. These two wins against the Ravens were very impressive, but the stats will show that the Bengals are a bad matchup for the Ravens. Cincinnati’s defense is the best in the National Football League at shutting down the opposing team’s top wide receiver. Take a look at their work through Week Nine.
Week One – Brandon Marshall 27 yards
Week Two – Greg Jennings 0 catches
Week Three - Santonio Holmes 1 catch 18 yards
Week Four - Braylon Edwards 0 catches
Week Five - Derrick Mason 0 catches
Week Six - Andre Johnson 8 catches 135 yards
Week Seven - Earl Bennett 4 catches 48 yards
Bye week
Week Nine - Derrick Mason 3 catches 31 yards
Only Andre Johnson of the Texans had success against the Bengals secondary. The Bengals also do a great job in limiting their opponents’ tight ends in pass receiving. They rank 4th best in the league in covering Tight Ends. Therefore, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Bengals have shut down Baltimore’s offense twice this season.
Quarterback Joe Flacco has only two consistent weapons in the passing game: wide receiver Derrick Mason and tight end Todd Heap. But, with the above information, teams have rarely made money against the Bengals defense by getting big plays from their primary receiver and pass catching tight end. If you can take Mason away from Flacco, who else is he going to throw to? Heap would be his only other legitimate target and once again, you would be throwing right into the teeth of the Bengal defense.
The Ravens are every bit as good as the Bengals as a team. But the Bengals have the advantage in places where the Ravens like to work offensively and it created a nightmare matchup for Baltimore.
The Steelers won’t have the same issues.
The Bengals limited the Steelers number one receiver, Santonio Holmes, to just one catch during the first game. They also limited Tight End Heath Miller to 20 yards.
Roethlisberger was still able to attack the weaknesses within the Bengals secondary. Hines Ward had 82 yards and Mike Wallace had over 100 yards in receiving. Even Limas Sweed would have joined the party had he caught the deep ball thrown to him in the end zone in the second half of that contest.
The other weakness in the Bengals defense is their inability to cover running backs out of the backfield. Ray Rice of Baltimore had 15 catches for 161 yards against them. Running back Steve Slaton of the Texans busted them for over 100 yards in receiving in Week Six. Willie Parker, a guy not known for his pass receiving, had 36 yards against the Bengals.
For Pittsburgh, the game plan is clear.
Look for the Steelers to once again attack the Bengals secondary with their depth at wide receiver – namely Ward and Wallace. Also, running back Rashard Mendenhall should be quite active in the passing game, potentially picking up big chunks of yardage after catching passes out in the flat. And because the Steelers are so deep with weapons in the passing game, the Bengals won’t be able to load up the box as they did against Baltimore to slow the rush. We could see the Pittsburgh running game open up in the second half as it did against the Denver Broncos last Monday night.
The Steelers average 6.4 yards per play against defenses that allow 5.7 on average. That is a +.7 differential. Their defense allows 5.0 yards per play (only 4.7 last three games – the Troy Polamalu factor) against offenses that average 5.3. That is a +.3 difference. Combined, this gives the Steelers a +1.0 power rating.
Meanwhile, the Bengals offense averages 5.5 yards per play against defenses that allow on average 5.4, giving the unit a +0.1 rating. Cincinnati’s defense allows 5.6 yards per play against offenses that gain 5.7 on average, an other +0.1 rating, giving the team a +0.2 total power rating.
If each tenth of a point can be considered one full point on the Las Vegas line, My ratings have the Steelers favored by eight points (Steelers +1.0 Bengals +0.2). Add in the home field advantage, and we should see the Steelers pull away in this one by double digits.
Steelers 27 -13
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Topics: NFL, Sports, Steelers | 10 Comments »
November 13th, 2009 at 11:45 pm
Good stuff Dutch. Even tho the Bengals scheme to take away the #1 WR and the TE, they are still 24th against the pass. There are too many weapons on the Steelers O to stop. I think Moore will have a good day too. Steelers by 10 or more.
November 14th, 2009 at 12:09 am
anytime someone takes a swipe at pedro king, i love it! i hope this game is a blow out, but for some reason, last night i was thinking about the late season bungles game in 2005 (the last loss that season). ben threw almost 400 yds, but the picks killed us that day. after the game, i thought the season was over, but obviously it wasn't.
after sunday's game, if we lose, steelers nation is going to be so deflated, but fear not! there is still almost half the season left, and being a wild card team isn't the worst thing that we can be.
having said all that ridiculousness, i still believe we should absolutely blow out the bungles, especially at home! stillers 38-17 which includes a garbage TD late for cincy. ike will once again dominate: 85 will only have 2 catches 15yds, zero TD's, and a whole lot of leftover mustard packets to take home.
November 14th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
no reason why the steelers shouldn't put up over 30 points against the bengals 25th rated pass defense which includes giving up big plays . the bengals are 7th worst in the nfl at giving up pass plays over 20yards(27 so far this season) and pass plays over 40 yards(5 this season).lets hope bruce arians doesn't get conservative with the playcalling and decides to drop the sledgehammer on the bengals defense and the steelers offense makes it a long miserable day for the bengals defensive unit!
November 15th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
As much as the Bengals have seen Heinz field, I think the playoff atmosphere will affect Cincy. The Vikings admitted that they were flustered at the venue noise and the chaotic presentation of defensive schemes. It'll be a close game, but a few big plays will separate Pgh from the Bengals. One defensive touchdown, a couple of field goals and touchdowns =Steelers 20 -10.
November 15th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
The Bengals corners and Safeties are definitely as good as advertised, but Ben's inability to get the ball far enough down the field for Mike Wallace is what cost the Steelers' their dignity.
November 15th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
Ben played poorly today. I don't know why, but he did. Holmes' drop did not help either. However, give the Bengals their credit. They won the game and denied the Steelers in the red zone.
Time to win to win out and see where 13-3 gets them.
November 16th, 2009 at 2:01 am
Well folks looks we steeler fans are going to have to deal with
a couple of very good young corners in Cincy for a while.
November 16th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
leon hall 5'11, jonathon joseph 5'11, chris crocker 5'11. down in the red zone especially inside the 10, for 1 play would like to see the steelers line up matt spaeth 6'7 and limas sweed 6'4 at wr and call the 'jump ball play'. its time the steelers took advantage of spaeth height. spaeth was drafted as a receiving tight end.don't think it would hurt to try this in the 1st quarter for 1 of your 4 downs down in the red zone to get a td. also should be using mewelde moore alot more down in the red zone. arians needs to get more creative with different personnel sets down in the red zone instead of relying too much on ward holmes and wallace. for the most part wallace speed is neutralized down inside the 10 yard line with a short field to play with.
November 16th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Terrible game planning and management today. I noticed that against the Bengals, and early against Denver as well, that the Steelers have gone back to not snapping the ball until 2 or 3 seconds are left on the clock, which lets the defense tee up their blitz waaaaaay too easily. And who throws nothing but deep balls in a two minute offense?
November 16th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
If the Steelers EVER roll out that 5 WR formation again, I think I'll just scream.